This column is an opinion piece.
We’re nearly there.
We can already see the opening weekend approaching as the college football offseason draws to a close. In light of that, we’re spending some time this week going game by game between Alabama and Auburn in order to determine the victors and losers.
Without knowing how new quarterbacks adjust in September, we recognize how stupid it can be to select games that are three months away. By the time October rolls around, how can we tell if a team will be healthy or completely destroyed by injuries?
But when this whole thing comes apart, you may roast me because we’ll do our best to make some picks in August.
This is a well-informed forecast for Alabama’s 2025 campaign.
Aug. 30 at Florida State
At one time, this appeared to be one of the more interesting home-and-homes. Following the 2023 regular season, FSU would have given up a lot to face Alabama after the Crimson Tide secured the CFP berth they believed was rightfully theirs.
Next came the 2024 season’s catastrophe. The Seminoles’ incredible 2–10 season took some of the sting out of this year’s opener. In contrast to the unbeaten regular season that came before it, they were a complete mess.
Who is Alabama expecting this Labor Day weekend, then? Who knows? Since last year’s humiliation, they have undergone some significant changes. This summer, new quarterback Thomas Castellanos added interest by disparaging Alabama. The arrival of Gus Malzahn as offensive coordinator also provides some flavor.
Sufficient for defeating the Crimson Tide? No.
The selection: 1-0 Alabama
Sept. 6: ULM
Make sure to cash the check. Let’s go on to the next one.
The selection: 2-0 Alabama
Sept. 13: Wisconsin
When the game was first planned, this seemed more intriguing. Although the Badgers have regressed as a program, it will be an exciting return game after Alabama saw a very different Big Ten football road atmosphere in Madison the previous season.
In the last three seasons, the team that won nine or ten games consistently in the 2010s has only won five games, including just seven last season.
They will feel as though they are playing on the surface of the sun when you factor in the 11 a.m. CT kickoff at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Badgers, welcome to the south.
The selection: 3-0 Alabama
Sept. 27 at Georgia
Things start to become intriguing at this point. It will be one of the most anticipated games Sanford Stadium has seen in a long time when Alabama travels to Athens for the first time since 2015. In practically every encounter over the previous ten and a half years, the Bulldogs have clearly labored against Alabama.
This is a difficult situation for the Crimson Tide, though, if Georgia settles in with a rookie quarterback who has had a month to get used to his surroundings. This is the ideal location for Kirby Smart to exact some sort of retribution under the ABC lights.
The selection: 3-1 Georgia
Oct. 4 Vanderbilt
In relation to retaliation, no defeat haunts Alabama more than Vanderbilt’s from the previous season. Typing that statement still feels strange. Because of the lost opportunities and overall frustrations of a game fought so closely, as well as the fact that Vanderbilt found the ideal route to a shocker, that loss still hurts more than the Oklahoma loss.
This time, the Commodores won’t surprise Alabama because Diego Pavia is back. Vanderbilt might gain some advantage by playing a week after what is sure to be a rough game against Georgia, but not enough to defeat the Crimson Tide for the second week in a row.
The selection: 4-1 Alabama
Oct. 11 at Missouri
With Missouri coming off back-to-back seasons with double-digit victory totals, this could be a bit of a trap game for Alabama. Despite losing a lot of their offensive potency from the previous season, the Tigers were still predicted to place 12th in the SEC.
Alabama gets a reprieve there since a road team always prefers to kick off at 11 a.m. CT rather than play in front of a well-pickled crowd under the lights. To what extent will they be anticipating matchups against South Carolina and Tennessee? That’s an excellent query. Although it was a problem the previous year, don’t expect Columbia, Missouri, to be overtaken by it.
The selection: 5-1 Alabama
Oct. 18 Tennessee
With so much uncertainty at quarterback for the Vols, it’s difficult to choose in the preseason. By the third Saturday in October, we’ll know a lot more, but in a rivalry this fierce, it’s impossible to wager on a preseason selection.
Given that Alabama’s problems with the Vols have primarily occurred in Knoxville, picking against them here is challenging. Two years ago, it was a crazy game at Bryant-Denny, but a significant second half made the difference. Similar to their victories over Georgia and LSU the previous season, Alabama seems to be making a statement at this point to boost the hype machine. So, we’ll use that.
The selection: 6-1 Alabama
Oct. 25 at South Carolina
It’s also important to remember that the stunning defeats to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma came after those victories over Georgia and LSU. If the Gamecocks’ first half of the season goes as planned, they won’t be able to surprise Alabama the way those two did the previous year. The largest obstacle before this one is a road trip to LSU two weeks before to Alabama’s arrival.
Not to mention how awful the Gamecocks’ Tuscaloosa game against Alabama was last year. The Tide attack struggled for much of the afternoon due to the disruptive defensive front. The ESPN networks can choose to air this at either 2:30 or 7 p.m. CT. Attending a game at night at Williams-Brice Stadium is a surefire way to lose on the road.
The selection: 6-2 South Carolina
Nov. 8 LSU
It might go either way with this one. After Alabama humiliated them at home a year ago, the Tigers are full of motivation and have a proven quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier.
As the season draws to a close, we will not be able to account for the overall health of programs in August. Given this, the home team will have an advantage in a nighttime match in Tuscaloosa.
The selection: 7-2 Alabama
Nov. 15 Oklahoma
The Sooners are one of those real mystery teams in 2025, coming off a disappointing season but one with sprigs of hope. Injuries decimated the OU offense for big portions of last season in a way that skewed some results. Scoring one of the top transfer QBs in John Mateer pumped some energy into a program that needs a boost.
That said, Alabama is going to get some real momentum going in mid-November with consecutive high-profile home wins.
The pick: Alabama, 8-2
Nov. 22 Eastern Illinois
Alright.
The pick: Alabama, 9-2
Nov. 29 at Auburn
Here we are, Thanksgiving weekend in the vortex that becomes Jordan-Hare Stadium. Both teams are 11 games deep. Who knows how healthy either side will be by now, and in the transfer era, depth isn t the luxury anyone can afford.
So, this becomes something of a toss-up. This is an Auburn program that appears to be on the verge of a breakout season with strong recruiting classes reaching maturity and, presumably, a quarterback who can run a Hugh Freeze offense efficiently.
If this game were in Tuscaloosa, I d be more inclined to go with the Tide. But in Jordan-Hare Stadium, weirdness happens even when Auburn s down on its luck. They re much better than two years ago, when a fourth-down play from the 31 saved Alabama.
The pick: Auburn. Alabama finishes the regular season with a 9-3 record.
Agree? Disagree?
Don t be a stranger. You know where to reach me.
Michael Casagrande is a reporter for the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter@ByCasagrandeor onFacebook
