This column is an opinion piece.
Things might get hot.
We are faced with a challenging situation as we approach the start of yet another college football season. It gets more difficult to accurately predict a season as each year of the transfer age goes by.
Take Florida State, ranked No. 10 in the 2024 preseason. Completely unknown, loaded with transfers, and ended 2–10.
This year’s task is very difficult.
Although Texas is ranked first in both the preseason coaches’ and AP polls, it is by no means a lock to be selected. In the AP version, the Longhorns garnered 25 of the 65 first-place votes, with Penn State, ranked second, coming in second with 23.
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The survey, which was made public on Monday, gave at least one first-place vote to six clubs. Only three got ballots for first place last year.
The 2025 preseason finger trap is perfectly captured in this image.
This season, the starting quarterback for six of the top eight teams in the AP poll will be replaced. Although Texas is one of those teams, Arch Manning is regarded as the most reliable option because he has been given Bevo’s reins.
But who knows?
No. 3 Ohio State, No. 5 Georgia, No. 6 Notre Dame, No. 7 Oregon, and No. 8 Alabama are all in the same boat.
One of those is statistically likely to have a quarterback who is a complete failure. I’m not claiming that this year’s FSU will be one, but the Seminoles’ 2024 dramatic failure was exacerbated by the need to replace a fantastic passer.
Mystery is also added by two of the top four clubs with returning starters. One of the teams that draws the most criticism anytime a high ranking is associated with the program is Penn State, which is ranked second. Even though they advanced to the CFP semifinals the previous year, some people still think they won’t win the championship.
The Nittany Lions’ route was rather straightforward; they defeated Boise State and SMU to advance to the Orange Bowl, where they were defeated by Notre Dame 27–24. They lost the two most important battles against Oregon and Ohio State, but otherwise won the games they were expected to win.
We shall see.
In terms of predicted return to significance, Clemson comes in at number four. The Tigers have dropped at least three games each season since falling to Ohio State in the 2020 CFP semifinal.
Dabo Swinney’s transfer allergy caused them to regress significantly from their previous position as the new Alabama. He lost to Texas 38–24 in the first round, but he backdoored a postseason berth by defeating SMU in the ACC championship game the previous year.
Drew Allar and Cade Klubnik are both returning starters at quarterback for Penn State and Clemson.
We shall see.
With a trip to No. 13 South Carolina as a November bookend and a season opener against No. 9 LSU, Clemson will put itself to the test right away.
Given that they only face three preseason top-25 teams throughout the season—Nevada, FIU, and Villanova—Penn State might be Indiana’s opener this year.
Third As Ohio State prepares for a huge first-week visit from No. 1 Texas, it has a quarterback competition. Lincoln Kienholz and Julian Sayin, a former Alabama recruit who left after Nick Saban retired, are vying to lead the reigning champions.
When the arms race moves from commissioner boardrooms to the field, it will be a wonderful early-season test of the SEC-Big Ten struggle for dominance.
With teams rated in the preseason AP poll, the SEC has the advantage in preseason expectations. A brief summary:
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SEC 10
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Big Ten 6
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Big 12 4
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ACC 3
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Ind. 1
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MWC 1
The Big Ten has three of the top ten, while the SEC, which has been without a national championship for two years, has four.
Only No. 11 Arizona State, the league’s reigning champion, has a representation in the Big 12. They unexpectedly won the title last year.
The Sun Devils aren’t among the real contenders for the national championship, if history is any indication.
Twelve years have passed since a team from outside the top 10 of the AP preseason poll won the championship. Prior to riding and surviving the Jameis Winston wave to defeat Auburn, which was selected in the preseason to finish fifth in the SEC West, Florida State was ranked No. 11 in 2013. This victory was the final BCS title.
Since since, a blue blood or one with high preseason expectations has won every championship.
However, times are changing. As we move into the revenue-sharing era, parity may theoretically be achievable.
We shall see.
There is no denying that the largest programs in the sport are being overtaken by a large number of first-year starting quarterbacks. The majority are highly regarded passers, but as we have all seen, blue-chip quarterbacks don’t always succeed.
Therefore, we might be about to put that preseason top 25 in a blender.
Please give me two scoops of chili powder for my ice cream.
The Alabama Media Group employs Michael Casagrande as a reporter. You may follow him on Facebook or Twitter at @ByCasagrande.
