Hurricane season 2025 officially begins: Active season likely; what to expect

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As of Monday afternoon, there is already something to watch as the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins.

The Atlantic Basin, which encompasses the Gulf and the Caribbean, began its season on Sunday, June 1. Nov. 30 is the last day.

The Atlantic season usually begins more slowly, with activity picking up in August and reaching its climatological high on September 10.

An overview of normal activities for the season is provided below:

It is anticipated that there will be more hurricanes than normal during the 2025 hurricane season.

In late May, NOAA issued its hurricane prediction for the season.

Twelve to nineteen named storms, six to ten hurricanes, and three to five significant hurricanes—storms with a Category 3 intensity or higher—are all predicted by forecasters.

Based on NOAA data, an average season consists of three major hurricanes, seven hurricanes, and fourteen named storms.

According to NOAA predictions, there is a 60% chance that the 2025 hurricane season will be more active than usual. The likelihood of near-average statistics is 30%, while the likelihood of below-average values is merely 10%.

However, NOAA’s forecasts are unable to anticipate the exact location of those storms.

However, forecasters from Colorado State University, who issued an early warning in April, believe that the likelihood of a significant storm striking the Gulf Coast (from Texas to the Florida Panhandle) is just slightly above average (33 percent). Based on statistics from 1880 to 2020, the average chance of that occurring is 27%.

The likelihood for the entire U.S. coast is 51%, with an average of 43%.

When the National Hurricane Center released its afternoon tropical outlook in the afternoon on Monday, it was clear that tropical storms were no longer anticipated in the Atlantic.

In the coming days, a non-tropical area of low pressure may develop close to or off the southeast coast of the United States, according to the hurricane center.

It may attempt to form into a tropical or subtropical system later this week as it moves away from the United States, according to forecasters, if it remains over the Atlantic.

People who keep an eye on hurricanes are looking through computer model data to see what might be developing in June.

In the coming weeks, another tropical system may emerge in the Caribbean, according to some forecast models, while other models indicate nothing will happen in the same region.

The Global Forecast System, or GFS, is infamous for creating what some refer to as fantasy canes that never come true. Although that has been occurring recently, other models do not support that theory.

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