It should come as no surprise that the United States vs. Mexico match will determine the largest prize in North American sports.
The final competitive game (apart from friendlies) for each team before they co-host the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be the CONCACAF Gold Cup Final, which will take place at Houston’s NRG Stadium amongst the continent’s top soccer teams.
For a variety of reasons, the United States is playing without players like Tim Weah, Christian Pulisic, and Weston McKennie who are anticipated to start next summer. Jesus Corona is playing in the FIFA Club World Cup, thus while Mexico has more of its regulars, they are not performing at their best.
With a title up for grabs, the rivalry will be fierce on Sunday despite the absences. A small favorite is Mexico. These are our top picks, predictions, and wagers for the USA vs. Mexico Gold Cup Final.
USA vs. Mexico predictions and best bets
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USA to lift Cup :
+116 at FanDuel
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Total goals regular time Under 2.5:
-170 at Caesars
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Player to score or assists – Diego Luna:
+450 at bet365
Note: To make sure you get the greatest odds, check lines closer to game time. Odds are based on the best value our experts identify when writing.
Mexico used to dominate this rivalry and still has the all-time advantage, but the Americans have a 5-0-1 record and have been leading in meaningful games since El Tri won the 2019 Gold Cup final.
The US’s victories in the CONCACAF Nations League Final in June 2021 and the Gold Cup Final two months later marked a sea change. In November 2021, the United States won a FIFA World Cup qualifier.
Unlike other sports, international soccer may not see teams play their fiercest opponents more than once a year. Nevertheless, momentum is important. The Americans currently possess it.
Although the U.S. team is performing well, it is not ideal that they are playing without so many players who will compete in the 2026 World Cup. Chris Richards, Malik Tillman, and Tyler Adams are still with the Americans.
Diego Luna, a dynamic midfielder, is also having a fantastic campaign. In five games, he has three goals and two assists, including a brace in the first half of the team’s semifinal victory over Guatemala.
Additionally, the betting odds favor the United States. The U.S. is better off since Mexico is the favorite. El Tri has a good chance of winning, but unless you’re ready to wager on the three-way moneyline (+155 at DraftKings Sportsbook), there isn’t much value.
Soccer betting is different, so keep a constant eye on the market regardless of the bet you choose to place. Your wager is only valid for the first ninety minutes if you choose the draw or either team on the three-way moneyline.
Two 45-minute halves and two 15-minute extra time periods will be played in the Gold Cup final if there is a tie at the end of regulation. A penalty shootout will decide the winner if there is a tie at the end of extra time.
Even if the United States wins in extra time or on penalties, you will still lose your wager if you placed a wager on the U.S. to win on the three-way moneyline and the game is tied after ninety minutes.
Look for the betting market called “to lift the cup” or “to lift the trophy” if you don’t want to tamper with such specifics. In this manner, you are placing your wager on the winner regardless of when it is decided.
Mexico’s defense has been its strongest suit in the first five games. El Tri let up two goals in their first group stage game and none in their subsequent four games. In the quarterfinal round, Mexico only allowed one on-target shot each from Saudi Arabia and Honduras.
Although the Americans have scored two goals or more in four of their last five games, they have not yet encountered a defense as formidable as Mexico’s. The Under is therefore a powerful play. Only goals scored in the first ninety minutes are included in this betting market.
Luna is the only American player that can overcome Mexico’s defense. He is the most energetic player in the attacking midfield position, which makes him ideal for helping to score goals. He has two assists in this tournament and three goals in his last two games.
USA vs. Mexico moneyline odds analysis
Why Mexico could win as the favorite
DraftKings Sportsbook’s best three-way moneyline odds are +155.
While momentum is important, Mexico’s defense is the antidote. If those players maintain their form, El Tri’s strong back end will make the difference on Sunday.
Even while it has been entertaining to watch, the United States lacks a player with as many goals as Mexico’s Raul Jimenez. The Fulham player has scored 41 goals for his nation in 116 games, including the game-winning goal in Wednesday’s 1-0 semifinal victory over Honduras. He is the type of player who has the ability to influence a championship game.
Why USA could win as the underdog
DraftKings Sportsbook’s best three-way moneyline odds are +220.
It doesn’t hurt as much as it might seem that the United States is losing the majority of its best players. It implies that players like Luna and goalie Matt Freese will have the chance to earn a spot in the World Cup roster. No one was ever harmed by the underdog mindset either.
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